Krista Duncan

Publications récentes

{"id":"RP-2223-015-S","is_published":"2022-11-08T14:57:02.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-08T15:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Global greenhouse gas emissions and Canadian GDP","title_fr":"Les \u00e9missions mondiales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et le PIB canadien","internal_id":"RP-2223-015-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report examines the long-term impact on the Canadian economy of changing weather patterns due to climate change.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport examine l\u2019incidence \u00e0 long terme sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne de la modification des tendances m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques li\u00e9e au changement climatique.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Our analysis indicates that the 0.9-degree Celsius average increase in surface temperature and 2.5 per cent increase in average precipitation observed for Canada over 1981 to 2021 (relative to 1961-1990 reference levels), have lowered the level of Canadian real GDP in 2021 by 0.8 per cent (or $20 billion in 2021 dollars).","fr":"Notre analyse indique que l\u2019augmentation de 0,9 \u00b0C de la temp\u00e9rature moyenne en surface et l\u2019augmentation de 2,5 % des pr\u00e9cipitations moyenne observ\u00e9es de 1981 \u00e0 2021 au Canada (par rapport \u00e0 la moyenne pour 1961 1990), ont r\u00e9duit le niveau du PIB r\u00e9el canadien de 0,8 % en 2021 (soit 20 milliards, en dollars de 2021)."}},{"content":{"en":"Under our benchmark global greenhouse gas emissions scenario in which countries across the world fully meet their climate commitments, we estimate that higher temperatures and precipitation will reduce Canada\u2019s real GDP by 5.8 per cent in 2100, compared to a counterfactual scenario where climate variables remain at their average levels observed over 1961 to 1990. For perspective, in 2021, 5.8 per cent of GDP amounts to $145 billion (in 2021 dollars). In 2100, the economy will be substantially larger and therefore the estimated impact in dollar terms would be correspondingly larger.","fr":"Selon notre sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, dans lequel les pays respectent int\u00e9gralement leurs engagements climatiques, nous estimons que l\u2019augmentation des temp\u00e9ratures et des pr\u00e9cipitations r\u00e9duira le PIB r\u00e9el du Canada de 5,8 % d\u2019ici 2100, par rapport \u00e0 un sc\u00e9nario hypoth\u00e9tique selon lequel les variables climatiques restent aux niveaux observ\u00e9s entre 1961 et 1990. \u00c0 titre illustratif, en 2021, 5,8 % du PIB repr\u00e9sentait 145 milliards de dollars (en dollars de 2021). En 2100, l\u0027\u00e9conomie sera nettement plus vaste et l\u0027impact estim\u00e9 en dollars sera donc d\u0027autant plus important."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that 2.4 percentage points of the 5.8 per cent impact in 2100 stems from the continuation of recent changes in weather patterns due to climate change while the remaining 3.6-percentage point impact is from future changes to weather patterns.","fr":"Nous estimons que 2,4 points de pourcentage sur l\u2019incidence de 5,8 % en 2100 est attribuable au prolongement des modifications r\u00e9centes dans les tendances m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques en raison du changement climatique, alors que les 3,6 points de pourcentage restants sont attribuables aux variations futures des tendences m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques."}},{"content":{"en":"If instead global policies remain closer to current settings\u2014and global climate commitments are not met\u2014we estimate that the level of Canadian real GDP in 2100 would be approximately three-quarters of a percentage point lower compared to our benchmark global emissions scenario.","fr":"En revanche, si les politiques mondiales restent pratiquement semblables \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elles sont actuellement \u2013 et que les engagements climatiques mondiaux ne sont pas respect\u00e9s \u2013 nous estimons que le niveau du PIB r\u00e9el canadien en 2100 serait d\u2019environ 0,75 point de pourcentage inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce que pr\u00e9voit notre sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour les \u00e9missions mondiales."}}]},"updated_at":"2022-11-08T14:57:02.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2223-015-S--global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-canadian-gdp--emissions-mondiales-gaz-effet-serre-pib-canadien","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-015-S--global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-canadian-gdp--emissions-mondiales-gaz-effet-serre-pib-canadien","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-015-S--global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-canadian-gdp--emissions-mondiales-gaz-effet-serre-pib-canadien"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-015-S--global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-canadian-gdp--emissions-mondiales-gaz-effet-serre-pib-canadien","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-015-S--global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-canadian-gdp--emissions-mondiales-gaz-effet-serre-pib-canadien"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/bbc2846795c541eddc656e484a15e7ecd91bd0aff45196f231523d8c5c9aafe4"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/2afddd6796eaf8d40eb4986fc9c3244281282f82c0c5ae43ad046ff24bf09ecf"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0d44dff3e81e412ce255d51f0a2ef88d871f71e70b09c2e9633b1c386bfd20ab","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c95e4fc316845555f3f7ac6520bd8f9e9ce6cc413e3291d1987b65474598ed1b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/63a4fa6f1bad2806e3c25c864cbbf36e71fdd832f479a62fae156a37c5ad36e7","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dfee03f533bc2266fef980871630044ccaba42b9d3082241d73b579a315d6eb3","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f478b397dec8c92bd03a62242330521e98f3ac245e20f6e8252e12ee2beffa1b","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fb9d225eb1c5cb56eca0c9fd9768aad7452b320d5f54329942eba36afc47713a","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8dfc661d4a72c6cb8e92fb6bc31e46becd18cc975b61f31a7b070d769843f048","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/57f6da5e911dc276ce303ecb7be19aa767a72cc27eaf65de2c9d42650c439b7f"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b64e66f81be23c264e9598055e0b68395984c1814e65244e6a0433c281b9354","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d61ae5d8ac476edc6866d6e47c817495b8cab00882bbe476d81fbf673c783c0e","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9af4500ddf23891c7f70ad8b29a365fda8594e9314e1ed9fb81f93f329646d46","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c2ab2e443c42d343c4b36e0c0ed2d44e1a87976c5b500522f53e49b93cdfd39c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6bf96b44e0b515b51377f6e352db9a42542654261453df3422299f19f8201417","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2fd75512e38768b6fb5b83a1e474fe1d5f8ee1d167ec2003b82a0f34451fc7ed","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bd755cd995064bb3d70d1a6807d7b1e4f2db593d60539a8178e9d4634d1cf1c0","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4da49029b4427faba64b63530015ea65dd4e021cc3a2757b10adc01bb60873ce"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223015S,\n author={Bagnoli, Philip and Scholz, Tim and Ammar, Nasreddine and Duncan, Krista and Perrault, Louis},\n title={Global greenhouse gas emissions and Canadian GDP},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223015S,\n author={Bagnoli, Philip and Scholz, Tim and Ammar, Nasreddine and Duncan, Krista and Perrault, Louis},\n title={Les \\\u0027{e}missions mondiales de gaz \\`{a} effet de serre et le PIB canadien},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2122-032-S","is_published":"2022-03-24T13:00:01.000000Z","release_date":"2022-03-24T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"A Distributional Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy","title_fr":"Une analyse distributive de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan \u00ab Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine \u00bb","internal_id":"RP-2122-032-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a distributional analysis of federal carbon pricing under the Government\u2019s A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy plan.\n\nApril 17, 2024: Estimates of the economic impacts presented in this report (Table 3-1) reflect the implementation of federal-equivalent carbon pricing at the national level. The counterfactual scenario used in the report reflects the broad removal of carbon pricing\u2014that is, the removal of the federal-equivalent fuel charge and output-based pricing system (OBPS). Estimates of household net costs incorporating \u201cfiscal and economic impacts\u201d reflect the broad economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing.\n\n[April 17 2024 Additional Analysis](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-003--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\nJuly 4, 2024: Text in the March 24, 2022 version of this report was revised to ensure consistency with the economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing (that is, the fuel charge and output-based pricing system). Estimates of economic impacts and household costs have not been revised.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une analyse distributive de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan du gouvernement intitul\u00e9 \u00ab Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine \u00bb.\n\nLe 17 avril 2024 : Les estimations des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es dans ce rapport (tableau 3-1) refl\u00e8tent la mise en \u0153uvre d\u2019une tarification du carbone \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale. Le sc\u00e9nario contrefactuel utilis\u00e9 dans le rapport refl\u00e8te la suppression g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de la tarification du carbone, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la suppression de l\u2019\u00e9quivalent f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la redevance sur les combustibles et du syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement (STFR). Les estimations des co\u00fbts nets pour les m\u00e9nages int\u00e9grant les \u00ab incidences financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques \u00bb refl\u00e8tent les incidences \u00e9conomiques au sens large d\u2019une tarification du carbone \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral.\n\n[Analyse compl\u00e9mentaire du 17 avril 2024](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-003--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\n4 juillet 2024 : Le texte de la version du 24 mars 2022 de ce rapport a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9 pour assurer la coh\u00e9rence avec l\u2019incidence \u00e9conomique de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la redevance sur les combustibles et le syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement). Les estimations des incidences \u00e9conomiques et des co\u00fbts pour les m\u00e9nages n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9es.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Under the Government\u2019s A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy (HEHE) climate plan, the federal carbon levy is set to rise by $15 per year from $50 per tonne in 2022 until it reaches $170 per tonne in 2030.","fr":"Dans le cadre du plan climatique du gouvernement intitul\u00e9 Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine (plan climatique), la taxe f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur le carbone devrait augmenter de 15 dollars par ann\u00e9e, passant de 50 dollars par tonne en 2022 \u00e0 170 dollars par tonne en 2030."}},{"content":{"en":"When losses in economic efficiency are added to fiscal impacts of federal carbon pricing, the net carbon cost increases for all households in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.","fr":"Lorsque les pertes d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique sont ajout\u00e9es aux incidences fiscales de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone, le co\u00fbt net du carbone augmente pour tous les m\u00e9nages de l\u2019Ontario, du Manitoba, de la Saskatchewan et de l\u2019Alberta."}},{"content":{"en":"Most households in provinces under the backstop will see a net loss resulting from federal carbon pricing under the HEHE plan. That is, household carbon costs will exceed the Climate Action Incentive payments households receive.","fr":"La plupart des m\u00e9nages des provinces o\u00f9 le filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 s\u2019applique subiront une perte nette r\u00e9sultant de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan climatique. C\u2019est-\u00e0-dire que le co\u00fbt du carbone pour les m\u00e9nages sera sup\u00e9rieur aux paiements de l\u2019incitatif \u00e0 agir pour le climat que les m\u00e9nages re\u00e7oivent."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to disposable income, our estimates of household net carbon costs continue to show a progressive impact that is, larger net costs for higher income households.","fr":"En ce qui concerne le revenu disponible, nos estimations des co\u00fbts nets du carbone pour les m\u00e9nages continuent de montrer une incidence progressive, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire des co\u00fbts nets plus importants pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that carbon pricing under HEHE will reduce the budgetary balance (increase the budgetary deficit) by $0.9 billion in 2021-22 and ultimately by $5.2 billion in 2030-31.","fr":"Nous estimons que la tarification du carbone dans le cadre du plan Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine r\u00e9duira le solde budg\u00e9taire (augmentera le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire) de 0,9 milliard de dollars en 2021-2022 et, \u00e0 terme, de 5,2 milliards de dollars en 2030-2031."}}]},"updated_at":"2024-07-04T11:07:57.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/6399abff7887b53208a1e97cfb397801ea9f4e729c15dfb85998d1eb359ea5c7"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4dee5e1a1e2c2e1b08a83cb76568cdcae2f520ca0c2a5fb9ffc1ef0f9e1b0efc"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8db8f49ad11c1e52c66a5835d50d52e5c8d259cee64c7d0a772800d4f4059f55","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ab7349515c1227f20760be771d4b6104e941c17bb435e8a321c0098364f3aaf5","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fa43c75b696587fed0e7db15b8989918616612d6b6d1f086a63a6581e1559427","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8ffa5503b879f25badafaf40d3a8aa19c860ded3603b6cbc74b97941b7faba63","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c8601a6ee7523923cc76dad0757aec9313fb9d844ffac91735ffda310f77e39","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f4d92277baa5464feccfe18c516285593c2e8b93fa82812712ff80dce3e71c57","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7dda017c4fc10410b761d9d374d8d2b42e006b4f50cd9fa5513315a94b338723","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ce85235453c99e367089e8600e03f34c0d8135fd891d664a2a8ea60053f41b62"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f76062665173fea78678d58a9c902ec1141ed546aeca70e9c7b21a4b075e7c9b","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1e183ff6c1a06d40cf7b2aec1a92c71bac3be82bc91a781a92f0387c501d60a7","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fdd583ccf32d83aaa4af73d537c6b394953df21c182e7c0c4ca3dbb2958a719d","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/78de16a86f06487fd72b5d00b68ecaab42f139ff14efde795d9a8ff80f197d41","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/499ee1da44201b305266118cc3f2206878d49b5755086efa1e27f1f9dc8d9c84","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e3e6a3b18c1e209c29c6aa2f21f75377f7b56435045660ca38919b5614153ddf","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3bc84094812e4fcf174d22e9d306a578ef8b450b98f79640566ee053e5fe5e4f","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/df7dae0058f06c2aa6988615b11c583a051e96aca003f84933097b1256c8f12f"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122032S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Bagnoli, Philip and Duncan, Krista and Scholz, Tim},\n title={A Distributional Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122032S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Bagnoli, Philip and Duncan, Krista and Scholz, Tim},\n title={Une analyse distributive de la tarification f\\\u0027{e}d\\\u0027{e}rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan \u00ab Un environnement sain et une \\\u0027{e}conomie saine \u00bb},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2122-030-S","is_published":"2022-03-01T14:00:03.000000Z","release_date":"2022-03-01T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 March 2022","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Mars 2022","internal_id":"RP-2122-030-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente des pr\u00e9visions de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles en vertu des cadres d\u2019action actuels.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO projects growth in the Canadian economy to rebound sharply in the second quarter and remain robust in the second half of 2022 as the reopening of the economy continues.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne reprendra nettement au cours du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre et qu\u2019elle demeurera solide durant la deuxi\u00e8me moiti\u00e9 de 2022 alors que se poursuit la r\u00e9ouverture progressive de l\u2019\u00e9conomie."}},{"content":{"en":"Based on our outlook for inflation and the output gap, PBO projects that the Bank of Canada will increase its policy interest rate by a cumulative 75 basis points, lifting its rate to 1.00 per cent by the end of 2022.","fr":"En s\u2019appuyant sur ses perspectives concernant l\u2019inflation et l\u2019\u00e9cart de production, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la Banque du Canada va augmenter son taux directeur de 75 points de base cumulatifs, relevant le taux \u00e0 1 % d\u2019ici la fin de 2022."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects a budget deficit of $139.8 billion (5.6 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22 and $47.9 billion (1.8 per cent of GDP) in 2022-23. We project the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to peak at 47.7 per cent in 2021-22 and then gradually decline over the medium term to 42.3 per cent.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 139,8 milliards de dollars en 2021-2022 (5,6 % du PIB) et de 47,9 milliards de dollars en 2022-2023, soit 1,8 % du PIB. Le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB devrait atteindre un sommet \u00e0 47,7 % du PIB en 2021-2022 avant de revenir progressivement \u00e0 moyen terme \u00e0 42,3 %."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to low interest rates, the cost of servicing the federal debt reached its lowest recorded level in 2020-21 of 7.2 per cent of tax revenues. While interest rates are projected to rise, the debt service ratio will remain low, reaching 11.5 per cent of tax revenues over the medium term.","fr":"\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 les faibles taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, le co\u00fbt de service de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale a atteint son niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 en 2020-2021, \u00e0 7,2 % des recettes fiscales. Malgr\u00e9 la hausse anticip\u00e9e des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, le ratio du service de la dette du gouvernement demeurera bas, atteignant 11,5 % des recettes fiscales \u00e0 moyen terme."}}]},"updated_at":"2022-03-01T14:00:03.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2122-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b26ede6fae896559139165f58afe8e6bf10ca44163553a90673a2a202748f9b"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ce266b874d5cf5681fc702ab435a15c3c5d220171125b8351c1ad6451d5665fc"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/adad829cca697f0c4c01bfc56c21242a1dc12f688663fc0c3908c990f335e1f8","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7280200957304b941e0e9011a9bcbfce3a44857dd754d179c0c181510426b924","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d4f43663ae762caa859a06ffaec35e55cff64724a49af75c7b6b63221ae89a99","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/32d182a695a4a33e141d2c9d2c7cf497e370a3c6774d9f7bc19e44adeea3c0d2","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/152810610eb1b2c1567c437df5e8429c3d3a840f5c3306f302f031eb9476d576","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5a62e91991aa8a240d5b65e6cff55c7d7d0312103bcb0df4cf94b7ac0d0d19a9","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ca5d1a67a614892f90f33d231548f7e94524c24bf0fea1227fdb8228467088d4","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/07797ba08dc2b3c77a49bf89ac8eb690f32cd1f10de694767fce8f1f853cdd82"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6da24b5271909c06c819dbb56e2ef3d689d8d0ebd56ebf951356e09a63f19502","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e4727c7519d9e95edb531319af7ee5916ad89394e7ea6f5a4db90dfd9745386c","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/126ed143c863b1a2c8a83b72f79e6463b5e0fef81479cf16f9293f003e05a23a","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/687dd5d99ac9d127d8226bf86f1d0c3cbfa222416b749d7cb31d42fa5428ebb1","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7640d17462dd1a6607140ceab75103832587a70d1e9ee3d7dc571f3fad141aee","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0d15b7bbcb508c547f55240af627127e1dbc89c50752f3d988a7d7c546b082be","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/19126bb571aade4c047d611e196e589cf85c986fb7b04cadb68f40d971faa89a","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6bf5bf0d768ead3b26017514afef4c804fba4a57bbc2faf673e1ac6ac8950ba8"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122030S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Duncan, Krista and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and MacPhee, Sarah and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Segel-Brown, Ben and Sourang, Diarra and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122030S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Duncan, Krista and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and MacPhee, Sarah and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Segel-Brown, Ben and Sourang, Diarra and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Mars 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2122-023-M","is_published":"2021-12-09T14:00:09.000000Z","release_date":"2021-12-09T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Estimating the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada: updates and trends","title_fr":"Estimation de l\u2019extr\u00e9mit\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure de la distribution du patrimoine familial au Canada : mises \u00e0 jour et tendances","internal_id":"RP-2122-023-M","metadata":{"abstract_en":"Senator Rosa Galvez requested that the PBO update the High-net-worth Family Database for the year 2019 and that the same methodology be applied to previous years in order to study the trends in the distribution of Canadian net wealth. PBO applies a modelling approach from a past report to estimate the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada for the year 2019. The approach is also applied to the years 1999, 2012, and 2016 in order to study the trends in wealth held by the wealthiest families in Canada. This report provides the details of the update and the results.","abstract_fr":"La s\u00e9natrice Rosa Galvez a demand\u00e9 que le DPB mette \u00e0 jour la Base de donn\u00e9es sur les familles \u00e0 valeur nette \u00e9lev\u00e9e pour l\u0027ann\u00e9e 2019 et que la m\u00eame m\u00e9thodologie soit appliqu\u00e9e aux ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes afin d\u0027\u00e9tudier les tendances de la distribution de la richesse nette canadienne. Le DPB applique une approche de mod\u00e9lisation d\u0027un rapport ant\u00e9rieur pour estimer l\u2019extr\u00e9mit\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure de la distribution de la richesse familiale au Canada pour l\u0027ann\u00e9e 2019. L\u0027approche est \u00e9galement appliqu\u00e9e aux ann\u00e9es 1999, 2012 et 2016 afin d\u0027\u00e9tudier les tendances de la richesse d\u00e9tenue par les familles les plus riches au Canada. Ce rapport fournit les d\u00e9tails de la mise \u00e0 jour et les r\u00e9sultats.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO finds that the top one percent\u2019s share of family net wealth in Canada has increased by approximately 5 percentage points over the period of 1999-2019.","fr":"Pour la p\u00e9riode 1999-2019, le DPB constate une hausse d\u2019environ 5 points de pourcentage de la part de la richesse nette des familles au Canada d\u00e9tenue par les 1 % les plus fortun\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"In PBO\u2019s update of the High-net-worth Family Database using the 2019 Survey of Financial Security public use microdata file, PBO finds that the top one percent\u2019s share of family net wealth in Canada is 24.8 per cent whereas the bottom 40 per cent of families own 1.1% of total wealth in 2019.","fr":"Dans le cadre de cette mise \u00e0 jour de la base de donn\u00e9es sur les familles \u00e0 valeur nette \u00e9lev\u00e9e, le DPB a utilis\u00e9 le fichier de microdonn\u00e9es \u00e0 usage public de l\u2019Enqu\u00eate sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de 2019. Il a constat\u00e9 qu\u2019en 2019, la part de la richesse nette des familles du premier centile au Canada \u00e9tait de 24,8 %, tandis que celle des familles du quaranti\u00e8me centile inf\u00e9rieur repr\u00e9sentait 1,1 % de la richesse totale."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO also finds that there were approximately 160,600 families in the top one percent in 2019, and they each had a net wealth of at least $6.3 million.","fr":"Le DPB constate \u00e9galement qu\u2019il y avait environ 160\u2009600 familles dans le premier centile en 2019, et qu\u2019elles avaient chacune une richesse nette d\u2019au moins 6,3 millions de dollars."}},{"content":{"en":"There were approximately 78,400 families with more than $10 million in net wealth and their share of family net wealth was about 19.3 per cent in 2019.","fr":"Environ 78\u2009400 familles avaient une richesse nette de plus de 10 millions de dollars, et leur part de la richesse nette familiale \u00e9tait d\u2019environ 19,3 pour cent en 2019."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects that, in the second quarter of 2021, there was approximately 161,700 families in the top one percent, and they each had a net wealth of at least $7.3 million.","fr":"Le DPB estime qu\u2019au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2021, il y avait environ 161\u2009700 familles dans le centile sup\u00e9rieur et qu\u2019elles avaient chacune une richesse nette d\u2019au moins 7,3 millions de dollars."}}]},"updated_at":"2021-12-09T14:00:09.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2122-023-M--estimating-top-tail-family-wealth-distribution-in-canada-updates-trends--estimation-extremite-superieure-distribution-patrimoine-familial-canada-mises-jour-tendances","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-023-M--estimating-top-tail-family-wealth-distribution-in-canada-updates-trends--estimation-extremite-superieure-distribution-patrimoine-familial-canada-mises-jour-tendances","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-023-M--estimating-top-tail-family-wealth-distribution-in-canada-updates-trends--estimation-extremite-superieure-distribution-patrimoine-familial-canada-mises-jour-tendances"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-023-M--estimating-top-tail-family-wealth-distribution-in-canada-updates-trends--estimation-extremite-superieure-distribution-patrimoine-familial-canada-mises-jour-tendances","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-023-M--estimating-top-tail-family-wealth-distribution-in-canada-updates-trends--estimation-extremite-superieure-distribution-patrimoine-familial-canada-mises-jour-tendances"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/20de98fc3f4d93c5213f8d71fbe7cd89ae69cb1899e9cbf2d3ca4d57f18ab25a"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/667a47992cc270630593920b2e17acd4ae1d5f5852884b325b009e0f68d9f6de"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c5de4d5c97faf8c86f793c0f4dcea205f5c185007f3741c22e501330dc537a31","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/013824220323d805a2151e5e26421016e409976ea8f204d902656417210774ed","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6fe228e78fa93bd774328cb77b9463ea7bb35fd6fb2413082b2534ea3dc4ae9b","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1034e67ad61c598c18eed805550233abcef5f75365db6f0113d79989638000d2","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4aa5a6643fb318d71ac30ae71c33b4f6d0a6abb6945b1ded07cf01de00efd304","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/57cdfd96cb906c9d2ccda7f80bbe4efd48fbaf4caeef3d27ad8c3d11bc0124ae","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5a0f499e46b880a07623570e6ee6adbdfa329180fad27301b27905a284972db6","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/90ae5a074b6078873212499aad0cb951064e6ed33ffdc82204f53122e4100a4e"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b61e0e41b252462facc699fc2397f9d3136650489518a2393030024422ca773","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6b7045281723bd65f6446c68869700d45b7fc34beb1a3134690f4ea525295580","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6b9d8790c2471fba901e544988ba48e3702b4eef22bd608f2ee0fea47bd4b50e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e735f362cc2d8cc964338dedafe1eff22e2ec5d6138f35244f06ca8e04d6a79a","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c2acedad33db282dd8a1dc68cc7dc69bc30ebd6e19d996c4b059866f9643b529","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6aaf40f2f0aed27c68141873bd6a31fe5a980b695ce2a3d4f4ff2e56b2d3481b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6336a316ffe9b292d69900bf1f977ad1efb13069f825c81b0c389c55be0e0e92","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/96940320de083be7c7260146056eaa58671f6454d022dd4effe3690118c3ce0c"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122023M,\n author={Duncan, Krista and Perrault, Louis},\n title={Estimating the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada: updates and trends},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2021,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122023M,\n author={Duncan, Krista and Perrault, Louis},\n title={Estimation de l\u2019extr\\\u0027{e}mit\\\u0027{e} sup\\\u0027{e}rieure de la distribution du patrimoine familial au Canada : mises \\`{a} jour et tendances},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2021,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}