[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"Team","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}},{"label":"Matthew McGoey","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe\/matthew-mcgoey","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}}]
Latest publications
{"id":"RP-2425-030-S","is_published":"2025-03-05T13:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2025-03-05T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 March 2025","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Mars 2025","internal_id":"RP-2425-030-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"There is considerable uncertainty regarding breadth, depth, and duration of a potential global trade conflict. As such, this Economic and Fiscal Outlook does not include threatened U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from Canada and other countries. However, PBO has prepared a scenario for parliamentarians\u2019 consideration.","fr":"Il existe une incertitude consid\u00e9rable quant \u00e0 l\u2019ampleur, \u00e0 la profondeur et \u00e0 la dur\u00e9e d\u2019un \u00e9ventuel conflit commercial mondial. Ainsi, les pr\u00e9sentes Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res ne couvrent pas les droits de douane que les \u00c9tats Unis menacent d\u2019imposer ni les mesures de r\u00e9torsion envisag\u00e9es par le Canada et d\u2019autres pays. Toutefois, le DPB a pr\u00e9par\u00e9 un sc\u00e9nario pour la gouverne des parlementaires."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2025, as uncertainty and slowing population growth weigh on business investment and consumer spending.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne conna\u00eetra en 2025 une croissance de 1,7 %, alors que l\u2019incertitude et le ralentissement de la croissance d\u00e9mographique freineront les investissements des entreprises et les d\u00e9penses de consommation."}},{"content":{"en":"With ongoing excess supply in the economy, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to remain near target. PBO anticipates the Bank of Canada will reduce its policy rate by another 25 basis points to reach its estimated neutral level of 2.75 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.","fr":"Compte tenu de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire persistante dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie, on s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que l\u2019inflation mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019Indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) reste pr\u00e8s de sa cible. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la Banque du Canada r\u00e9duira son taux directeur de 25 points de base afin qu\u2019il atteigne son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 de 2,75 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to fall to $50.1 billion (1.6 per cent of the gross domestic product or GDP) in 2024-25 from the $61.9 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) deficit recorded in 2023-24. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $24.6 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire sera de 50,1 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut, ou PIB) en 2024 2025, une baisse par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 61,9 milliards de dollars (2,1 % du PIB) en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit devrait reprendre sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 24,6 milliards de dollars (0,7 % du PIB) en 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to fall slightly from its 2023-24 level of 42.1 per cent, reaching 41.9 per cent in 2024-25 and 41.6 per cent in 2025-26. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.2 per cent in 2029-30 but remain well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB baissera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement par rapport au ratio de 42,1 % en 2023-2024 et qu\u2019il atteindra 41,9 % en 2024 2025 et 41,6 % en 2025-2026. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,2 % en 2029-2030, ce qui demeure bien sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) will rise to 10.8 per cent in 2024-25 from 10.3 per cent in 2023-24. PBO projects the debt service ratio to increase further, reaching 11.3 per cent in 2029-30\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes totales) passera \u00e0 10,8 % en 2024 2025, alors qu\u2019il s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 10,3 % en 2023-2024. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette augmentera encore et qu\u2019il atteindra 11,3 % en 2029 2030, soit bien au-dessus de son creux de 7,0 % enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie en 2018-2019."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-03-05T13:57:08.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/92c62a1693230bf441637127bc5435ebfc63bce9e2989c5672bfd8f0ba540a4e"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4865417355d8eb36abc3407d84838c625c8766ba5bfce1967f358c32d79b32b3"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d39082e5b906d8a1df6ea5d97eed6f5c5bebc932ec8573cc34e40e97a50fd296","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b0f430fb5b27bdb1f5d366dbf081cac227535726b9bcfe7c92c27a37b0ba35a","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/78ad65afd599e253699c810bcf257c4d256f66201feafd180b4faaf2bec918b9","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/439e9d192bd566d21cc854bf58e9df9d74a2f479b09953161df9cc7e85680329","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c75d60a6360aca44f040daecaf3f0648f666043cfdf1f5ea8199586884848e4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0051404e79e6220140ba494b3d50c5f5a3e230f712657cd34b669570ea0ce031","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/17bfa4c12eb452794c7e7101d7657b10b510efcadbb89e0a3539bf88b6c77983","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/751b7cb7c1cbe2262e60e0482da3aafe3db33a8176e6d5473e89c70634c0207d"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5bb705586729f04b7984ff228369030171069c6859a81050a952cd3698a4ddc8","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/05f86e3e14dbd02f89fc985507df5188938cf17ebb8580b4750c7829096b01a7","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6d5afcfe975eb297ea0558eb9400122b7e750bae2e2dd8d90920b96186f20175","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6cfd380fb7ae595734b693cbc84f9b5c10b3a44550bdce5a751f9f73d50af9ae","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5f0ed8ac00e8622257090aeeccae98b5118fa5af555aef9662649e52edbd9ad0","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b60f883c36ddfac376cd4637dc20c03eb94295b82461ca0cd891be56237991d","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6ba29c9215861d68294c86ef5b83f9dd9d47ba1ebde03011ada025a496ae6c19","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b333fd95210f9037e19a81a1ed4b05edbad61fdc18feb551a2ecdb4cf63c2711"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425030S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2025},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425030S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Mars 2025},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}
{"id":"RP-2425-018-S","is_published":"2024-10-17T12:57:02.000000Z","release_date":"2024-10-17T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 October 2024","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 octobre 2024","internal_id":"RP-2425-018-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO projects growth in the Canadian economy to remain tepid in 2024. Interest rates will continue to restrain growth in consumer spending and business investment. We expect real GDP growth will rebound to 2.2 per cent in 2025, as lower borrowing costs provide a boost to consumer spending and business investment, and exports pickup.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne demeurera modeste en 2024. Les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat continueront de freiner la croissance des d\u00e9penses de consommation et des investissements des entreprises. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la croissance du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el rebondisse \u00e0 2,2 % en 2025, car la baisse des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt stimule les d\u00e9penses de consommation et les investissements des entreprises, et encourage la reprise des exportations."}},{"content":{"en":"With the ongoing excess supply in the economy, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is on track to return to its 2 per cent target. We anticipate the Bank of Canada will continue to gradually reduce its policy rate until it reaches its estimated neutral level of 2.75 percent in the second quarter of 2025.","fr":"Compte tenu de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire persistante au sein de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, l\u2019inflation mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019Indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation est en voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque du Canada continuera de r\u00e9duire progressivement son taux directeur jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019il atteigne son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 \u00e0 2,75 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that there was a budgetary deficit of $46.8 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) in 2023-24. For the current fiscal year, 2024-25, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to slightly decline to $46.4 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $22.5 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30.","fr":"Nous estimons qu\u2019il y avait un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 46,8 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du PIB) en 2023-2024. Pour l\u2019exercice financier en cours, soit 2024-2025, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire diminuera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement \u00e0 46,4 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB) dans le cadre d\u0027une politique de statu quo. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 22,5 milliards de dollars (0,6 % du PIB) en 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to be 42.2 per cent in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.0 per cent in 2029-30, well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB restera \u00e0 42,2 % en 2024-2025. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,0 % en 2029-2030, ce qui est bien sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) to rise to 10.6 in 2024-25 from 10.3 per cent in 2023-24. As the effective interest rate on debt edges higher in 2024-25, we project the debt service ratio to increase further and reach 11.2 per cent in 2029-30\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes totales) passera \u00e0 10,6 % en 2024-2025, alors qu\u2019il s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 10,3 % en 2023-2024. Comme le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat effectif sur la dette est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 2024-2025, nous pr\u00e9voyons que le ratio du service de la dette augmentera encore et qu\u2019il atteindra 11,2 % en 2029-2030, soit bien au dessus de son creux record de 7,0 % enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie en 2018-2019."}}]},"updated_at":"2024-10-17T12:57:02.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/78ce079f881ed107be7389eca371c9c0b21752840065265538f30a75466327d0"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/17e763792632c01620f1be9013979a56278f652c6ac6c3bbbffdfa5c47ba76e7"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2227ae47016244d7fee6979ff55819dcb53a12859eb1cad58eda51e4e02693eb","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f6cc3cc16c055321966c155117bd8575a3b39b5a111db7d24b971fc55f4fae72","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d94c00f588acaf2837e7f7fe9a8074d6d18a092766ac0c0381446bb6bea46cbe","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/71a466f30c420eaa90bc7d53c42a853930242594d1e357e88c47619b3ec85f78","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5d029a2ada90cd0b8ad1e0ff0670fb2699006a85fa494976d25b358ca06e04b5","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/40e014410224941454565d72f05e42781305917f04385a6f96fb9d73cf1f5b99","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0014eeb7527086482703320a87481ebaa58838710c878ba50e918d40eb36e001","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/27a7b5cf8a2a9d6030896935105ed5322d03659942d6302299f901dd4d5e7b58"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9cc31e3071cdd2ed8031d0508f7bc7c32f9d24e16c1a5716cc5036aec5d1e27e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bfdd900a0556836b9c37ce2d272d4ab95b075b4f98e79a55f074bd172129b6a4","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3ef5173adc96a6755a37f3c3423399dc6cd7a0d0d73ad634770a2f17dea8cb04","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4319f07362f23fde8ef5e89ccdd7db90da89fb7088461604dbd28401aa679049","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/16b425b08a6ab3f885215e818f5651d3d1b0a01985d4a7504d6ef10bf16377f3","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a4939d014cfac1a212b106edcb9bbf9c511a4b918191acdf339ca50675152ff8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c8edc32eaeb43dd766d9732cc6bd78b5b41317afa461077c610a17a27d116b54","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb1d8dc3dfc3f1729604a2d931f6ee96539be90eac2b435efcc202ad1d019963"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425018S,\n author={Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary and Matier, Chris},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425018S,\n author={Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary and Matier, Chris},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - octobre 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}
