Govindadeva Bernier
Director, Budgetary Analysis
Prior to joining the OPBO, he worked as an economist for Emploi-Québec at the Lanaudière Regional Office, as a Project Manager for Invest Quebec in the Tax Measures Division and as a Tax Policy Officer at the Department of Finance in the Evaluation and Research Group within the Tax Policy Branch.
Govindadeva holds an MSc in economics and a BSc in economics and finance, both from the University of Quebec in Montreal.
Latest publications
This report provides estimates of the responsiveness (commonly referred to as “elasticity” in the economic literature) of taxable income to a change in the corporate income tax rate. Having a reliable estimate of this responsiveness allows for better estimation of the impact on federal revenue of proposed changes to the corporate income tax system.
To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2022.
This report compares Canada’s tax administration performance with that of comparable countries with a set of indicators derived from the International survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA) 2020. ISORA is administered every two years, collecting data on the previous two fiscal years from over 150 national or federal tax administrations around the globe.
Pursuant to Bill C-8, the Eligible Educator School Supply Tax Credit rate will be increased from 15% to 25%. This rate will still apply to eligible teaching supplies expenses of up to $1,000 and the credit will remain refundable. The definition of eligible teaching supplies will be modified to include technological devices and the requirement that the supplies must be used in school will be waived.
This measure would apply to the 2021 and subsequent taxation years.
The PBO’s Ready Reckoner is an online tool to estimate the potential impacts on federal budgetary revenues that would arise from adjusting various federal tax rates, credits, and brackets. This is a brief guide to assist users with technical questions.
Introducing immediate expensing for eligible property (most capital property except generally long-lived assets) acquired by a CCPC on or after Budget Day and that becomes available for use before January 1, 2024, up to a maximum amount of $1.5 million per taxation year. The availability of other enhanced deductions under existing rules – such as the full expensing for manufacturing and processing machinery and equipment and for clean energy equipment, introduced in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement – would not reduce the maximum amount available under this new measure.
The corporate income tax (CIT) rate on eligible zero-emission technology manufacturing and processing activities will be reduced in half. This will reduce the CIT rate on small businesses from 9 to 4.5 per cent and the general CIT rate from 15 to 7.5 per cent. The rate reduction will apply to taxation years that begin after 2021 and before 2031 (gradually phasing out between 2029 and 2031).
This report estimates the federal corporate income tax revenues that would be generated if an additional 15 percent tax rate was applied to excessive profits earned by big firms in 2020.
Senator Rosa Galvez requested that the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimate the costs and savings of a hybrid parliamentary system. In such a system, parliamentarians can participate in the proceedings either in person or remotely via videoconference.
This report estimates certain incremental costs (mostly acquisition of IT equipment and increased costs of interpretation services) and the savings (reduction in travel expenses for Senators and Members of the House of Commons that no longer travel to Ottawa to attend in person) of a hybrid parliamentary system.
Starting in 2021–2022, the government will invest an additional $606 million over five years to allow the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) to combat tax evasion and aggressive tax avoidance. Specifically, the CRA will hire additional offshore-focused auditors to focus on individuals who avoid taxes by hiding income and assets offshore. It will enhance the audit function targeting higher-risk tax filings, including those of high-net worth Canadians, and strengthen its ability to fight tax crimes such as money laundering and terrorist financing.
This report responds to a request from a Senator to estimate the financial cost of Bill C-7, which broadens eligibility for medical assistance in dying.
Kelly McCauley, MP for Edmonton West, requested that the PBO report on costs incurred from the federal Government’s policy of allowing employees to use pay code 699 – paid leave for other reasons for leave related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This report presents the findings from 699 leave data provided by the Treasury Board Secretariat and supplementary data provided by the Canada Revenue Agency.
Businesses, including self-employed individuals, can defer until June 30, 2020 payments of the Goods and services tax (GST)/Harmonized sales tax (HST), as well as customs duty owing on their imports. Any GST/HST payment that becomes owing from March 27 until the end of May can be deferred until the end of June. For GST and customs duty payments for imported goods, deferral includes amounts owing for March, April and May. PBO estimates a total of $12.3 billion in tax payments (GST/HST and custom import duties) will be deferred between March 27 and June 30, 2020. The cost of borrowing for the government to avoid cash-flow issues during this period is estimated at $3.9 million. By extending the payment deadlines, PBO estimates the government will forgo a total of $27.1 million in interest and penalties for late payment. Finally, by extending the payment deadline, PBO estimates the government could lose an additional $61.0 million because of increased defaults. The total cost of the measure is thus estimated at $92.0 million.
For individuals, the deadline to file a tax return will be deferred until June 1, 2020. For corporations that would have a filing due date between March 18 and June 1, 2020, the filing due date will be deferred until June 1, 2020. For trusts with a tax year end date of December 31, 2019, the filing due date will be deferred until May 1, 2020. For trusts that would have a filing due date in April or May, the filing due date will be deferred until June 1, 2020. For these taxpayers (individuals, corporations and trusts), the payment of any income tax balance due or tax installments after March 18 will be deferred until September 1, 2020. No interest or penalties will accrue on these amounts PBO estimates a total of $63.7 billion in tax payments (balance due and tax installments) will be deferred between March 18 and September 1, 2020. The cost of borrowing for the government to avoid cash-flow issues during this period is estimated at $56.1 million. By extending the filing and payment deadlines, PBO estimates the government will forgo a total of $241.8 million in interest and penalties for late filing and late payment. Finally, by extending the payment deadline, PBO estimates the government could lose an additional $381.1 million because of increased defaults. The total cost of the measure is thus estimated at $679.0 million.
This report presents PBO findings on international taxation, in response to Senator Percy E. Downe’s request to the Parliamentary Budget Officer in 2012. PBO finds that financial flows between Canada and certain jurisdictions are disproportionately large compared to their GDP, net cross border position and net trade flows. Some of these jurisdictions have been recognized as tax havens.
In response to a request from a member of Parliament, the PBO has prepared a cost estimate of the federal government introducing 100% expensing to match the recent U.S. tax change in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The cost estimate is based on 100% expensing for eligible property from 2019 to 2023, which is then phased-out and reduced by 20% per year beginning in 2024.
This report provides ex post (after the fact) estimates of the fiscal impact of the middle class tax cut in tax years 2015 and 2016.
This report responds to a request to provide the estimated fiscal cost of reducing the federal corporate income tax rate by 1 percentage point per year over 6 years. By the end of 6 years, this presents a combined federal-provincial statutory rate of 20.7%.
Using Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M), the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated the federal fiscal impact of including the value employer-paid health plans in the taxable income of employees. The PBO determined that this measure would increase federal personal income tax receipts by $2.8 billion, increase CPP contributions by $532 million and decrease transfer payments to individuals by $441 million. All these amount to an increase of $3.8 billion of the federal government’s net balance.
In preparation of the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO used Budget 2018 as an opportunity to assess its existing capacity to cost a variety of policy initiatives within a short period of time. Upon publication of Budget 2018, PBO assessed all new measures for their eligibility for independent costing.
This report provides a long-term scenario analysis of the three largest federal transfers: Equalization, the Canada Health Transfer and the Canada Social Transfer.
This report analyzes potential changes to the taxation of dividends paid to family members of the owners of a Canadian-controlled private corporation (CCPC), one of the policy proposals put forth as part of the consultations and confirmed in Budget 2018.
On July 18, 2017, the Minister of Finance announced consultations on tax planning strategies involving the use of private corporations. This report analyzes potential changes to the taxation of corporate passive investment income, one of the policy proposals put forth as part of the consultations.
Cost estimate of Bill C-323, a private member’s bill that seeks to amend the Income Tax Act to create a 20 per cent tax credit for expenses related to rehabilitating a historic property, and to create a tax deduction for the capital cost of property used in the course of such rehabilitation.
This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.