The Polar Icebreaker Project: 2024 Update

Communications

Quotes

• We estimate the total cost of the Polar Icebreaker Project at $8.5 billion, inclusive of project management costs of $420 million, design costs of $960 million, and acquisition costs of $7.1 billion. This represents a $1.3 billion increase over our prior estimate.

• Our sensitivity analysis suggests that delays of either one or two years in the start of the construction of both vessels at each partner shipyard would increase total project costs by $260 million or $530 million, respectively.

News Release

{"id":64,"created_at":"2024-06-28T08:12:26-04:00","updated_at":"2024-06-28T09:09:35-04:00","slug":"pbo-estimates-the-total-cost-of-the-polar-icebreaker-project-at-85-billion-selon-les-estimations-du-dpb-le-projet-de-brise-glaces-polaires-coutera-85-milliards-de-dollars","title_en":"PBO estimates the total cost of the Polar Icebreaker Project at $8.5 billion","title_fr":"Selon les estimations du DPB, le projet de brise-glaces polaires co\u00fbtera 8,5 milliards de dollars","body_en":"Today the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) released an updated cost estimate of the Polar Icebreaker Project, following prior PBO work in 2021 on this subject. It is an independent cost estimate of the development and acquisition phases of the project with a sensitivity analysis for a one-year and two-year delay in the start of construction of the two vessels.\n\nThe Polar Icebreaker Project, initially launched by the Government of Canada in 2008, aims to replace the Canadian Coast Guard\u2019s existing fleet of heavy icebreakers with two new heavy icebreakers built to modern specifications.\n\n\u201cWe estimate the total cost of the Polar Icebreaker Project at $8.5 billion, inclusive of project management costs of $420 million, design costs of $960 million, and acquisition costs of $7.1 billion. This represents a $1.3 billion increase over our prior estimate\u201d, says Yves Giroux, PBO. \n\nThe estimates used for this report are derived from specifications provided to the PBO by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), which were current as of May 2024. PBO anticipates that the construction process will span seven years. Construction activities for the first vessel are expected to begin in 2024-2025 at Vancouver Shipyards (VSY) with delivery in 2030-2031. We also assume that construction on the second vessel at Chantier Davie Canada Incorporated (CDCI) will begin in 2026-2027 and delivery will be in 2032-2033. However, as the Government of Canada is currently in negotiations with CDCI for the construction timeline of the second vessel, this is subject to change.\n\n\u201cOur sensitivity analysis suggests that delays of either one or two years in the start of the construction of both vessels at each partner shipyard would increase total project costs by $260 million or $530 million, respectively\u201d, added Mr. Giroux.","body_fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) a publi\u00e9 aujourd\u0027hui une mise \u00e0 jour des co\u00fbts du projet de brise-glaces polaires. Cette analyse fait suite aux travaux que le DPB a effectu\u00e9s en 2021 \u00e0 ce sujet. Il s\u0027agit d\u0027une estimation ind\u00e9pendante des co\u00fbts des phases de d\u00e9veloppement et d\u0027acquisition du projet, assortie d\u0027une analyse de sensibilit\u00e9 en cas de retard d\u0027un ou deux ans dans la mise en chantier des deux navires.\n\nLe projet de brise-glaces polaires, initialement lanc\u00e9 en 2008 par le gouvernement du Canada, vise \u00e0 remplacer la flotte actuelle de brise-glaces lourds de la Garde c\u00f4ti\u00e8re canadienne par deux nouveaux brise-glaces lourds construits selon des normes modernes.\n\n\u00ab Nous estimons le co\u00fbt total du projet de brise-glaces polaires \u00e0 8,5 milliards de dollars, soit des co\u00fbts de gestion de projet de 420 millions de dollars, des co\u00fbts de conception de 960 millions de dollars et des co\u00fbts d\u2019acquisition de 7,1 milliards de dollars. Cela repr\u00e9sente une augmentation de 1,3 milliard de dollars par rapport \u00e0 notre estimation pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Yves Giroux, DPB. \n\nLes estimations qui ont servi \u00e0 r\u00e9diger ce rapport reposent sur les sp\u00e9cifications fournies au DPB par le minist\u00e8re des P\u00eaches et des Oc\u00e9ans (MPO) en mai 2024. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le processus de construction s\u0027\u00e9tendra sur sept ans. La construction du premier navire devrait d\u00e9buter en 2024-2025 au chantier Vancouver Shipyards (VSY), et sa livraison est pr\u00e9vue pour 2030-2031. Nous nous appuyons \u00e9galement sur l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se que la construction du second navire, au Chantier Davie Canada Inc. (CDCI), commencera en 2026-2027, et que la livraison aura lieu en 2032-2033. Toutefois, puisque le gouvernement du Canada est actuellement en n\u00e9gociation avec CDCI pour finaliser le calendrier de construction du deuxi\u00e8me navire, des changements pourraient survenir.\n\n\u00ab Selon notre analyse de sensibilit\u00e9, si le d\u00e9but de la construction des deux navires dans chacun des chantiers navals partenaires est retard\u00e9 d\u2019un an ou deux, le co\u00fbt total du projet pourrait augmenter de 260 millions de dollars ou de 530 millions de dollars, respectivement \u00bb, a ajout\u00e9 M. Giroux.","release_date":"2024-06-28T09:00:00-04:00","is_published":"2024-06-28T09:09:35-04:00","internal_id":"COM-2425-064","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/pbo-estimates-the-total-cost-of-the-polar-icebreaker-project-at-85-billion-selon-les-estimations-du-dpb-le-projet-de-brise-glaces-polaires-coutera-85-milliards-de-dollars"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/pbo-estimates-the-total-cost-of-the-polar-icebreaker-project-at-85-billion-selon-les-estimations-du-dpb-le-projet-de-brise-glaces-polaires-coutera-85-milliards-de-dollars"}},"pivot":{"publication_id":809,"news_release_id":64}}