Costing Asylum Claims from Visa-Exempt Countries

Summary

Since 2016 the number of asylum claimants has been rising and it has reached an all-time high of 144,860 claims in 2023.[^1] Asylum claimants who arrive in Canada with an Electronic Travel Authorization (eTA) are the fastest growing group when compared to claimants with other types of authorizations to enter Canada (such as visas).

In response to parliamentary interest, PBO prepared a cost per asylum claimant arriving to Canada with an eTA, as well as the total cost associated with processing the inventory of asylum claimants who arrived in Canada with an eTA before January 1st, 2024.[^2] This cost estimate includes only the variable costs associated directly with claim processing as well as the federal programs that support asylum seekers.

The asylum claim process is a complex multi-step process. Therefore, the overall cost will vary depending on the number of steps before a final decision is obtained as well as on the expected wait times at each step. PBO estimates that the average cost for each asylum claimant arriving with an eTA is $16,500 in 2024, with a range of $9,055 to $40,814 (depending on the number of appeals before a final decision). Accounting for organizational capacities, the cost associated with the inventory of claimants who have arrived in Canada with an eTA before January 1st, 2024, but who had not received the final decision by that date is estimated to be $455 million over five years.

Background

Asylum Process

A refugee protection claim can be made at any port of entry upon arrival in Canada, or at an inland office.[^3] If the officer deems the refugee claim eligible, they will issue a basis of claim form, which needs to be completed within 15 days and submitted to the Immigration and Refugee Board’s (IRB) Refugee Protection Division (RPD).[^4]

Next, a claimant will submit all relevant evidence to support their claim at the RPD hearing. If the IRB accepts the claim, the claimant will be granted protected person status in Canada. If the IRB rejects the claim during the RPD hearing, the claimant will have to leave Canada or explore other options, such as appealing the decision to the IRB’s Refugee Appeal Division (RAD) or applying for the Judicial Review with the Federal Court (FC).[^5][^6]

If the claimant is facing removal from Canada, they may apply for a Pre-Removal Risk Assessment (PRRA) if they believe there is a risk to life, or of cruel and unusual treatment or punishment upon the return to their country.

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

PoE: Port of Entry CBSA: Canada Border Services Agency IRCC: Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada BoC: Basis of Claim IRB: Immigration and Refugee Board RPD: Refugee Protection Division RAD: Refugee Appeal Division FC: Federal Court

\*Minister may appeal the decision to RAD

Electronic Travel Authorization

In 2016, the Government of Canada introduced the Electronic Travel Authorization (eTA) program. Foreign nationals from visa-exempt countries travelling by air are required to obtain an eTA to travel to Canada for short stays.[^7] Visa-exempt nationals do not need to obtain an eTA when arriving by car, bus, train or boat (including a cruise ship). Under certain conditions citizens from select visa-required countries may be eligible to apply for an eTA, instead of a visa, to travel to Canada by air.[^8] The application for eTA requires a $7 fee and is completed online, with most applications being approved within minutes.

Since 2017, the first full year of eTA implementation, the number of asylum claimants increased by 185% (with an average annual increase of 49%).

The proportion of asylum claimants whose last approved authorization to enter Canada was an eTA has increased from 7% in 2017 to an all-time high of 21% in 2022 and reaching 19% in 2023.

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer using data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer using data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada

Cost Analysis

The costing methodology used in this section relies on variable asylum processing costs that fluctuate based on the number of claimants. It does not include fixed costs such as program management and infrastructure, which are incurred regardless of the number of claimants.

PBO estimates that the average cost for each asylum claimant arriving with an eTA is $16,500 in 2024.[^9] This was calculated based on the probability of a claimant appearing at each step of the asylum process and the average variable cost associated with that step. If the involved organization tracked the last approved temporary resident status of the claimant, the take-up rate for the respective step was calculated using applicants arriving in Canada with an eTA only.[^10] The costs associated with each step of the asylum process are assumed to be the same regardless of the last approved temporary resident status. Further, the costs of federal programs supporting asylum seekers have been included in this cost estimate.[^11][^12] Fluctuations in wait times due to the complexity of the multi-step asylum claim process and the number of claimants already in the system can cause a significant variation in the future per-claimant cost to the federal government.

We have also determined the average cost of applications where a claimant receives a favourable ruling at the first RPD hearing where there is no appeal of the decision, as well as a higher-cost scenario where an individual deemed to not be a refugee exhausts all appeal procedures before being removed from Canada.[^13]

The total cost of processing asylum claims of applicants who have arrived in Canada with an eTA before January 1st, 2024, and whose claims have already been deemed eligible but who have not yet received a final decision is estimated to be $455 million.[^14] Accounting for the multi-step asylum process and organizational capacities, these claims are expected to take up to five years to be processed, with annual costs decreasing as more claimants receive a final decision.

The federal government provides direct support to asylum seekers through different programs:

1. Interim Housing Assistance Program (IHAP) supports provinces and municipalities, on a cost-sharing basis, in providing housing such as shelters, hotel rooms or other interim housing arrangements.

2. Interim Federal Health Program (IFHP) bridges a gap in healthcare coverage for refugees and asylum claimants until they qualify for provincial or territorial insurance.

3. Legal Aid Program assists asylum claimants with legal costs related to their claim, such as preparing and representing them at hearings before the IRB and appeals in the asylum process.

There are other programs that indirectly support provincial services for asylum claimants such as the Canada Social Transfer (CST) and the Canada-Quebec Accord.

Uncertainty

In response to an increase in asylum claims made by Mexican citizens that are refused, withdrawn, or abandoned, the Government of Canada updated travel requirements for Mexican citizens coming to Canada.[^15] As of February 29, 2024, only Mexican citizens who hold a valid US non-immigrant visa or have held a Canadian visa in the past 10 years and are travelling by air on a Mexican passport will be able to apply for an eTA.[^16] Those who do not meet this requirement will need to apply for a Canadian visitor visa. Given that asylum claimants whose country of alleged prosecution is Mexico are the largest portion of recent asylum claims, this could significantly impact future processing times, as well as the backlog, and therefore affect the per-claimant cost.

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer using data from Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada.

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer using data from Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada.