Cost Estimate of the Firearm Buy-Back Program

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Communications

Quote

• Depending on the number of affected firearms in Canada, the take-up rate, and the pricing structure used, the estimated total compensation under the buy-back program could amount to $756 million, in addition to administration costs.

News Release

{"id":18,"created_at":"2021-06-28T13:08:53-04:00","updated_at":"2021-06-29T08:59:03-04:00","slug":"COM-2122-018--pbo-estimates-cost-of-firearm-compensation-could-reach-over-750---le-dpb-evalue-a-plus-de-750-millions-de-dollars-lindemnisation-d","title_en":"PBO estimates cost of firearm compensation could reach over $750 million","title_fr":"Le DPB \u00e9value \u00e0 plus de 750 millions de dollars l\u2019indemnisation des propri\u00e9taires d\u2019armes \u00e0 feu","body_en":"The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) today released his estimate, under various scenarios, of the cost of firearm compensation as part of the Government\u2019s proposed firearm buy-back program. \n\nDuring the 2019 election campaign, the Liberal Party of Canada announced its plan to ban all military-style assault rifles, including the AR-15, and to introduce a buy-back program to purchase the legally owned firearms at fair market value. Earlier this year, the Government tabled Bill C-21 which provides a legislative framework for the control of firearms. \n\nPBO\u2019s analysis relies on two independent datasets obtained from the Government and industry. The Government estimates that there are roughly 150,000 affected firearms, and the Canadian Sporting Arms and Ammunition Association (CSAAA) estimates approximately 518,000. The variance largely relates to the difference in estimated non-registered firearms in Canada. \n\nIn his report, Cost Estimate of the Firearm Buy-Back Program, the PBO applied sensitivity analysis by varying take-up rates across two potential pricing structures \u2013 a tiered model where compensation is based on firearm condition, and a second where compensation is based on the market value of the firearm. \n\n\u201cDepending on the number of affected firearms in Canada, the take-up rate, and the pricing structure used, the estimated total compensation under the buy-back program could amount to $756 million, in addition to administration costs\u201d, said Yves Giroux, PBO.\n\nDetails regarding how the voluntary buy-back program will be implemented remain unclear. As such, it is currently impossible to estimate the program administration costs.","body_fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) a rendu publique aujourd\u2019hui son \u00e9valuation, selon divers sc\u00e9narios, du co\u00fbt de l\u2019indemnisation des propri\u00e9taires d\u2019armes \u00e0 feu dans le cadre du programme de rachat d\u2019armes \u00e0 feu que propose le gouvernement. \n\nPendant la campagne \u00e9lectorale de 2019, le Parti lib\u00e9ral du Canada a annonc\u00e9 son intention d\u2019interdire tous les fusils d\u2019assaut de style militaire, dont l\u2019AR-15, et d\u2019adopter un programme de rachat \u00e0 leur juste valeur de march\u00e9 des armes \u00e0 feu achet\u00e9es l\u00e9galement. Au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, le gouvernement a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 le projet de loi C-21 qui vise \u00e0 encadrer par la loi le contr\u00f4le des armes \u00e0 feu. \n\nL\u2019analyse du DPB est fond\u00e9e sur deux jeux de donn\u00e9es ind\u00e9pendants obtenus du gouvernement et de l\u2019industrie. Le gouvernement \u00e9value \u00e0 environ 150 000 le nombre des armes \u00e0 feu vis\u00e9es, tandis que la Canadian Sporting Arms and Ammunition Association (CSAAA) cite le chiffre approximatif de 518 000. L\u2019\u00e9cart tient en grande partie \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence dans leur estimation du nombre des armes \u00e0 feu non enregistr\u00e9es au Canada. \n\nDans son rapport, \u00c9valuation du co\u00fbt du programme de rachat d\u2019armes \u00e0 feu, le DPB a appliqu\u00e9 une analyse de sensibilit\u00e9 en faisant varier les taux d\u2019utilisation selon deux bar\u00e8mes de prix possibles \u2013 une formule \u00e0 plusieurs paliers o\u00f9 l\u2019indemnit\u00e9 d\u00e9pend de l\u2019\u00e9tat de l\u2019arme \u00e0 feu, et une autre fond\u00e9e sur la valeur de march\u00e9 de l\u2019arme \u00e0 feu. \n\n\u00ab Selon le nombre des armes \u00e0 feu vis\u00e9es au Canada, le taux d\u2019utilisation et le bar\u00e8me de prix retenu, le co\u00fbt estimatif de l\u2019indemnisation des propri\u00e9taires d\u2019armes \u00e0 feu dans le cadre du programme de rachat pourrait atteindre 756 millions de dollars, en plus des frais d\u2019administration du programme \u00bb, a dit Yves Giroux, DPB.\n\nLes d\u00e9tails concernant la mise en \u0153uvre du programme de rachat volontaire restent impr\u00e9cis. Par cons\u00e9quent, il est impossible \u00e0 l\u2019heure actuelle d\u2019\u00e9valuer les co\u00fbts d\u2019administration du programme.","release_date":"2021-06-29T09:00:00-04:00","is_published":"2021-06-29T08:59:03-04:00","internal_id":"COM-2122-018","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/COM-2122-018--pbo-estimates-cost-of-firearm-compensation-could-reach-over-750---le-dpb-evalue-a-plus-de-750-millions-de-dollars-lindemnisation-d"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/COM-2122-018--pbo-estimates-cost-of-firearm-compensation-could-reach-over-750---le-dpb-evalue-a-plus-de-750-millions-de-dollars-lindemnisation-d"}},"pivot":{"publication_id":478,"news_release_id":18}}