New Canadian Dental Care Plan

As part of the 2023 Federal Budget, the federal government introduced the New Canadian Dental Care Plan, which will provide dental coverage to uninsured Canadians with annual family income of less than $90,000, with no co-payments for those with family incomes under $70,000. In 2023 the plan will cover those 18 and under, seniors and those living with a disability; the plan will be fully implemented in 2025.

The PBO estimates the Canadian Dental Care Plan will increase federal program spending by $10.1 billion over five years.[^1] This estimate is based on the assumptions that existing programs, notably at the provincial and territorial level, will continue to provide coverage for dental services.  Should provinces reduce or eliminate their coverage, it would increase federal cost by up to almost $5 billion over five years (see the “Existing dental programs” row in the table below for the annual profile).

• Estimates are presented on an accrual basis as would appear in the budget and public accounts.
• A positive number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A negative number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending).
• Totals may not add due to rounding

The eligible population was estimated using Statistics Canada Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M) Health, based on information provided by Finance Canada. Disease prevalence data was obtained from the Canadian Health Measures Survey and procedure costs were obtained from Telus Health.

The costing methodology is that used by the PBO for previous cost estimates of a federal dental care plan and procedures covered are analogous to those offered under the Non-Insured Health Benefits.[^2]

Procedure costs were grown using historical fee increases relative to inflation rates. Administration costs were accounted for in the estimate. A behavioural response is included in the cost estimate in the form of increased utilization rates.

The cost estimate does not account for retreatments. Changes to the eligibility criteria, utilization rates, disease prevalence, service coverage and frequency, or forecasted inflation rates will influence costs. It is assumed provincial/municipal dental care services are maintained; the cost to the federal government will increase if that is not the case. Administration costs have been estimated at the average provincial cost for similar programs; federal administration costs could be higher depending on the exact design of the program.