An Act to amend the Old Age Security Act

This bill proposes to increase the amount of the full pension to which all pensioners aged 65 or older are entitled to by 10 per cent, and to raise the exemption for employment income or self-employment earnings considered in determining the amount of the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) to $6,500 from $5,000.

The PBO estimates the implementation of Bill C-319 will increase federal transfers and federal taxes paid, resulting in a net cost of $16.1 billion over five years.

• Estimates are presented on an accrual basis as would appear in the budget and public accounts.
• A positive number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A negative number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending).
• Totals may not add due to rounding

The cost was calculated as the difference between the proposed changes under the terms of Bill C-319 and the status quo amounts for Old Age Security (OAS) and GIS.

From 2023 to 2026, the OAS and GIS parameters in Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M)[^1] were adjusted to reflect the new policy changes regarding basic amount, income recovery threshold, additional 10 per cent increase for seniors 75 or older, and GIS amounts.

For 2027 and 2028, population projections, effective tax rates and the growth rate of average federal transfers were used to project the changes anticipated in federal taxes paid and transfers.

PBO does not expect any material incremental administrative costs.

The estimate produced is dependent on population growth projections and forecasted inflation rates. A behavioural response is not expected.