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PBO Releases Analysis of Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard

Ottawa (Ontario), August 29, 2024

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) today released a report analyzing how the relative ownership costs of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will need to be adjusted to meet the ZEV sales targets set by Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard by 2030.

Under this standard, released by Environment and Climate Change Canada in December 2023, ZEV sales targets are set at 20% in 2026, 60% in 2030 and 100% in 2035.

“Based on our modelling, significant adjustments to domestic market conditions are required to meet the annual ZEV sales targets,” said PBO Yves Giroux. “According to our estimates, in order to induce a change in consumer behaviour to reach the 2030 target, the relative cost of owning a ZEV compared to ICE vehicles will have to drop by 31% compared to its expected cost in 2030 without the standard.”

We anticipate that achieving the ZEV sales targets will lead to an increase in public charging infrastructure, with an increase in Level 2 and Level 3 (fast) charging stations by 33,900 and 4,700 units respectively, compared to the levels expected in 2030 without the standard. However, this supply of public charging stations would be slightly below the estimated needs for 2030, according to a study commissioned by Natural Resources Canada.

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This report provides an analysis of how the relative ownership costs of ZEV and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, as well as the market provision of charging infrastructure, may need to adjust to meet the ZEV sales targets under the standard by 2030.","abstract_fr":"En vertu de la norme sur la disponibilit\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, les constructeurs seront tenus de veiller \u00e0 ce que les offres de parcs de v\u00e9hicules l\u00e9gers correspondent \u00e0 une part de march\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules z\u00e9ro \u00e9mission (VZE) de 20 % en 2026, de 60 % en 2030 et de 100 % en 2035. Ce rapport analyse la mani\u00e8re dont les co\u00fbts de propri\u00e9t\u00e9 relatifs des v\u00e9hicules VZE et des v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 moteur \u00e0 combustion interne (ICE), ainsi que l\u2019offre d\u2019infrastructures de recharge, pourraient devoir \u00eatre ajust\u00e9s pour atteindre les objectifs de vente de VZE pr\u00e9vus par la norme d\u0027ici \u00e0 2030.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The Electric Vehicle (EV) Availability Standard will compel automotive manufacturers to ensure fleet offerings of light-duty vehicles consistent with a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market share of 20 per cent in 2026, 60 per cent in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035\u2014significantly above the market share projected under a baseline scenario without the standard.","fr":"La norme sur la disponibilit\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques (VE) obligera les constructeurs automobiles \u00e0 veiller \u00e0 ce que les offres de parcs de v\u00e9hicules l\u00e9gers correspondent \u00e0 une part de march\u00e9 des VZE de 20 % en 2026, de 60 % en 2030 et de 100 % en 2035, ce qui est nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la part de march\u00e9 projet\u00e9e dans un sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence sans la norme."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming that preferences, technology and policies remain unchanged from a baseline scenario without the standard, PBO estimates that the relative ownership cost of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) would need to decrease by 31 per cent to meet the ZEV sales target of 60 per cent in 2030. That is, the ownership cost of ZEVs relative to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2030 under the standard would need to be 31 per cent lower compared to the baseline scenario without the standard in 2030.","fr":"En pr\u00e9sumant que les pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences, la technologie et les politiques restent les m\u00eames que ce qui est pr\u00e9vu dans un sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence sans la norme, le DPB estime que le co\u00fbt relatif de possession d\u2019un v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique \u00e0 batterie (VEB) devrait diminuer de 31 % pour atteindre l\u2019objectif de vente de VZE de 60 % en 2030. Autrement dit, le co\u00fbt de possession d\u2019un VZE par rapport \u00e0 celui d\u2019un v\u00e9hicule \u00e0 moteur \u00e0 combustion interne en 2030 en vertu de la norme serait inf\u00e9rieur de 31 % \u00e0 celui du sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence sans la norme."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates that achieving the ZEV sales targets under the EV Availability Standard would increase the market supply of L2 and L3 (fast) charging ports by 33,900 and 4,700 units, respectively, above baseline levels in 2030\u2014somewhat less than what is required according to a recent needs analysis commissioned by Natural Resources Canada.","fr":"Le DPB estime que le fait d\u2019atteindre les objectifs de vente de VZE en vertu de la norme permettrait de faire passer l\u2019offre de bornes de recharge de niveau 2 et de niveau 3 (rapide), de 33 900 et \u00e0 4 700 unit\u00e9s, respectivement, au-dessus du sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en 2030, soit un peu moins que ce qui est requis selon une r\u00e9cente analyse des besoins command\u00e9e par Ressources naturelles Canada."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425012S,\n author={Perrault, Louis and Scholz, Tim},\n title={Electric Vehicle Availability Standard: Potential Impacts on Ownership Costs and Charger Supply},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425012S,\n author={Perrault, Louis and Scholz, Tim},\n title={Norme sur la disponibilit\\\u0027{e} des v\\\u0027{e}hicules \\\u0027{e}lectriques : couts de possession et l\u2019offre de bornes de recharge},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}