Today the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) released an updated cost estimate of the Polar Icebreaker Project, following prior PBO work in 2021 on this subject. It is an independent cost estimate of the development and acquisition phases of the project with a sensitivity analysis for a one-year and two-year delay in the start of construction of the two vessels.
The Polar Icebreaker Project, initially launched by the Government of Canada in 2008, aims to replace the Canadian Coast Guard’s existing fleet of heavy icebreakers with two new heavy icebreakers built to modern specifications.
“We estimate the total cost of the Polar Icebreaker Project at $8.5 billion, inclusive of project management costs of $420 million, design costs of $960 million, and acquisition costs of $7.1 billion. This represents a $1.3 billion increase over our prior estimate”, says Yves Giroux, PBO.
The estimates used for this report are derived from specifications provided to the PBO by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), which were current as of May 2024. PBO anticipates that the construction process will span seven years. Construction activities for the first vessel are expected to begin in 2024-2025 at Vancouver Shipyards (VSY) with delivery in 2030-2031. We also assume that construction on the second vessel at Chantier Davie Canada Incorporated (CDCI) will begin in 2026-2027 and delivery will be in 2032-2033. However, as the Government of Canada is currently in negotiations with CDCI for the construction timeline of the second vessel, this is subject to change.
“Our sensitivity analysis suggests that delays of either one or two years in the start of the construction of both vessels at each partner shipyard would increase total project costs by $260 million or $530 million, respectively”, added Mr. Giroux.