[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"News Releases","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse","section":{"id":4,"title_en":"Communications","title_fr":"Communications"}},{"label":"PBO estimates the impact of the Clean Fuel Regulations on households","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/pbo-estimates-the-impact-of-the-clean-fuel-regulations-on-households-le-dpb-estime-lincidence-du-reglement-sur-les-combustibles-propres-sur-les-menages","section":{"id":4,"title_en":"Communications","title_fr":"Communications"}}]

PBO estimates the impact of the Clean Fuel Regulations on households

Ottawa (Ontario), May 18, 2023

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) today released a distributional analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR). The CFR, which are a part of the federal government’s climate plan, require suppliers to gradually reduce the carbon intensity of the gasoline and diesel fuels they produce and sell for use in Canada starting July 1, 2023.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) estimates that the CFR will increase the price of gasoline and diesel in 2030—the year in which the CFR reach full stringency—by up to 17 cents per litre and 16 cents per litre, respectively. ECCC also estimates that the CFR will decrease real GDP in Canada by up to 0.3 per cent (or up to $9.0 billion) in 2030.

Based on ECCC’s economic impact estimates, the PBO’s report finds that relative to household disposable income the CFR is broadly regressive.

“Since lower income households generally spend a larger share of their income on transportation and other energy-intensive goods and services compared to higher income households, on average the Clean Fuel Regulations will have a greater impact on these households,” says PBO Yves Giroux.

The PBO estimates that at the national level, in 2030, the cost of the CFR to households ranges from $231 (or 0.62 per cent of disposable income) for lower income households to $1,008 (or0.35 per cent of disposable income) for higher income households.

“At the provincial level, households in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador will have the highest cost, which reflects the higher fossil fuel intensity of their economies,” adds Mr. Giroux. “In contrast, the cost will be lowest in British Columbia due, in part, to revenues generated from existing provincial regulations.”

The PBO’s estimates are based, in part, on data provided by ECCC from their upper bound fuel price scenario. Consequently, the PBO’s estimates should be regarded as upper bound estimates.

Visit the PBO’s Climate Plans and Targets Hub to see all our work on this topic.

-30-

    {"id":"RP-2324-004-S","is_published":"2023-05-18T12:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2023-05-18T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"A Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations","title_fr":"Analyse distributive du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres","internal_id":"RP-2324-004-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a distributional analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations that will require reductions in the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel used in Canada.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une analyse distributive du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres qui exigera de r\u00e9duire l\u2019intensit\u00e9 carbone de l\u2019essence et du diesel utilis\u00e9s au Canada.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Relative to household disposable income, PBO results show that the Clean Fuel Regulations are broadly regressive. That is, the cost to lower income households represents a larger share of their disposable income compared to higher income households.","fr":"Par rapport au revenu disponible des m\u00e9nages, les r\u00e9sultats du DPB indiquent que le R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement r\u00e9gressif. Autrement dit, le co\u00fbt pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 faible revenu repr\u00e9sente une proportion plus importante de leur revenu disponible que pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"At the national level, in 2030, the cost of the Clean Fuel Regulations to households ranges from 0.62 per cent of disposable income (or $231) for lower income households to 0.35 per cent of disposable income (or $1,008) for higher income households.","fr":"\u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale, en 2030, le co\u00fbt du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres pour les m\u00e9nages va de 0,62 % du revenu disponible (ou 231 $) pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 faible revenu \u00e0 0,35 % du revenu disponible (ou 1 008 $) pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to disposable income, the cost of the Clean Fuel Regulations to the average household in 2030 is the highest in Saskatchewan (0.87 per cent, or $1,117), Alberta (0.80 per cent, or $1,157) and Newfoundland and Labrador (0.80 per cent, or $850), reflecting the higher fossil fuel intensity of their economies.","fr":"Par rapport au revenu disponible, c\u2019est en Saskatchewan (0,87 % ou 1 117 $), en Alberta (0,80 % ou 1 157 $) et \u00e0 Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador (0,80 % ou 850 $) que le co\u00fbt du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres pour le m\u00e9nage moyen en 2030 est le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, ce qui refl\u00e8te l\u2019intensit\u00e9 des combustibles fossiles plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e de leurs \u00e9conomies."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to disposable income, the cost of the Clean Fuel Regulations to the average household in 2030 is the lowest in British Columbia (0.28 per cent, or $384), reflecting the relatively muted impact on real GDP. That said, the cost to the average household in Ontario (0.35 per cent, or $495) and Quebec (0.39 per cent, or $436) is only modestly larger.","fr":"Par rapport au revenu disponible, c\u2019est en Colombie-Britannique (0,28 % ou 384 $) que le co\u00fbt du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres pour le m\u00e9nage moyen en 2030 est le plus bas, ce qui refl\u00e8te l\u2019incidence relativement faible sur le PIB r\u00e9el. Cela dit, le co\u00fbt pour le m\u00e9nage moyen en Ontario (0,35 % ou 495 $) et au Qu\u00e9bec (0,39 % ou 436 $) n\u2019est que modestement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates are based, in part, on data underlying the Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada from their upper bound fuel price scenario. Consequently, PBO estimates should be regarded as upper bound estimates.","fr":"Les estimations du DPB se fondent en partie sur les donn\u00e9es qui sous-tendent le R\u00e9sum\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9tude d\u2019impact de la r\u00e9glementation pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 par Environnement et Changement climatique Canada pour son sc\u00e9nario de limite sup\u00e9rieure d\u2019augmentation des prix des combustibles. Par cons\u00e9quent, les estimations du DPB devraient \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme des estimations de limite sup\u00e9rieure."}}]},"updated_at":"2023-05-18T16:34:04.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e884599e101a53a3388d8c69884637f349b215fa483ca0089301ecb897da02b1"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7503c62a679d722ee6e443d309a86de395ac92a3ae238164c90141698d33202"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/53b337aecf5fe95d429aa98a2b7d3680d6dcab74eff180d6a1516e124d7dbae1","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6d83eb94ae4c7de71b61e2fb5a867b72b24c7d16b29a021d591d698ed8974bb3","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6413d6221bb93183a27e45a596792f81bb87e22616eba09343bcb0d6ed0656c1","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5fe5853c4feab2a1ee21e0ca5c03b48119dc94c61be31caf213f4ca32908c8d2","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/220c15f4e4dc37527a0e91324af086dd6337a8cd26cf16570ace9405f7359a3d","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/57fd1d292ac51d4c6265d5428437f00c6f3e50ed58248acefc42590f8b9e3c2a","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d840a8f1715ad48d359f92a2640d35ab06b4409b0d42765f242485b8e148ca8e","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2ad1800901f276669ea6500f7c4f5ddba85621821399eff096e3a0fe112f8bc3"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8dac949c1533b36ff5b1d241c7444b5a11011e9f918388e0d14e17be8ab8738f","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5b2e36c26bc1a4dd9e49b26264eb6750a391ca37812dbe70822c9eb207363afa","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f65b0a135e8b751619fdf150e3bf7d01a43b348b1d0021d69fce81da6b3644a5","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8d0733478a592fbf44a8f7889132b379d09addfce24734fa325f37233ffbb215","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fdd28eadf2a8471b5f71bf95a78276e47a011c7fa0c44a24cd54b6c59d04c444","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0118e89c94c35b14ba3cfd6828dd3d200556beffec13f04194b1ccf47bc4032f","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/92c435cd052789f5b39c1fbac228236a79060b510c58d3a417e94d87a00ef06a","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/151a668b134f18e08696652cb7147ba845f5518531f1fa9e22e8d78f5f0630b5"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324004S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Bagnoli, Philip and Scholz, Tim and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={A Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324004S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Bagnoli, Philip and Scholz, Tim and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={Analyse distributive du R\\`{e}glement sur les combustibles propres},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}