[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"Additional Analyses","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires"},{"label":"Impact Assessment of the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap \u2013 Factual information","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-010--impact-assessment-oil-gas-emissions-cap-factual-information--evaluation-incidence-plafond-emissions-secteur-petrolier-gazier-donnees-factuelles"}]
{"id":"RP-2425-032-S","is_published":"2025-03-12T12:57:09.000000Z","release_date":"2025-03-12T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Impact Assessment of the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap","title_fr":"\u00c9valuation de l\u2019incidence du plafond d\u2019\u00e9missions du secteur p\u00e9trolier et gazier","internal_id":"RP-2425-032-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides an assessment of the potential economic impact of the Government\u2019s proposed regulations to cap greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une \u00e9valuation de l\u2019incidence \u00e9conomique potentielle du projet de r\u00e8glement du gouvernement pour le plafonnement des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre du secteur p\u00e9trolier et gazier.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"In the absence of the Government\u2019s proposed oil and gas emissions cap regulations, PBO\u2019s baseline scenario indicates that upstream oil and gas emissions will exceed the legal upper bound (that is, the maximum allowable emissions) of 160 megatonnes (Mt) by 7.1 Mt annually, on average, over the first compliance period 2030 to 2032.","fr":"En l\u2019absence du r\u00e8glement propos\u00e9 par le gouvernement sur le plafond d\u2019\u00e9missions du secteur p\u00e9trolier et gazier, le sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du DPB indique que les \u00e9missions du secteur p\u00e9trolier et gazier en amont d\u00e9passeront la limite sup\u00e9rieure l\u00e9gale (c\u2019est \u00e0 dire les \u00e9missions maximums permises), qui est de 160 m\u00e9gatonnes (Mt), de 7,1 Mt annuellement, en moyenne, sur la premi\u00e8re p\u00e9riode de conformit\u00e9 de 2030 \u00e0 2032."}},{"content":{"en":"To achieve the legal upper bound, PBO estimates indicate that upstream oil and gas sector production will need to be reduced by 4.9 per cent over 2030 to 2032 relative to projected levels in the baseline scenario. That said, under the proposed regulations production is projected to be 11.1 per cent higher, on average, over 2030 to 2032 compared to current levels.","fr":"Pour atteindre la limite sup\u00e9rieure l\u00e9gale, le DPB estime que la production du secteur p\u00e9trolier et gazier en amont devra \u00eatre r\u00e9duite de 4,9 % sur la p\u00e9riode de 2030 \u00e0 2032 par rapport aux niveaux projet\u00e9s dans le sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence. Cela dit, selon le projet de r\u00e8glement, la production serait sup\u00e9rieure de 11,1 % en moyenne sur la p\u00e9riode de 2030 \u00e0 2032 comparativement aux niveaux actuels."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates that the required reduction in upstream oil and gas sector production levels will lower real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada by 0.39 per cent in 2032 and reduce nominal GDP by $20.5 billion. PBO estimates that achieving the legal upper bound will reduce economy-wide employment in Canada by 40,300 jobs and full-time equivalents by 54,400 in 2032.","fr":"Le DPB estime que la r\u00e9duction requise des niveaux de production du secteur p\u00e9trolier et gazier en amont r\u00e9duira le produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el au Canada de 0,39 % en 2032 et r\u00e9duira le PIB nominal de 20,5 milliards de dollars. Le DPB estime que l\u2019atteinte de la limite sup\u00e9rieure l\u00e9gale entra\u00eenera la suppression de 40 300 emplois et de 54 400 \u00e9quivalents temps plein au Canada en 2032 dans l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019\u00e9conomie."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-03-12T12:57:09.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-032-S--impact-assessment-oil-gas-emissions-cap--evaluation-incidence-plafond-emissions-secteur-petrolier-gazier","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-032-S--impact-assessment-oil-gas-emissions-cap--evaluation-incidence-plafond-emissions-secteur-petrolier-gazier","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-032-S--impact-assessment-oil-gas-emissions-cap--evaluation-incidence-plafond-emissions-secteur-petrolier-gazier"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-032-S--impact-assessment-oil-gas-emissions-cap--evaluation-incidence-plafond-emissions-secteur-petrolier-gazier","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-032-S--impact-assessment-oil-gas-emissions-cap--evaluation-incidence-plafond-emissions-secteur-petrolier-gazier"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/358b401ed3917bcd74e3ca14f50c15330e69f860a6fc4499ff1d59dc1b4bdda6"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e568fa5e50ca995199efc29e70e1731e694418ff6ba4e6930683f17c9f4ffdb8"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7205bd204e23c93d4a6d8f8bd54d1220e1a5186612c2432e3123b2f556520815","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8d838289a660fccd45399c800e659eeb55e75ade8e7e8b9bb66506371c7ac12d","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9117745b2bd984baa42309d3198d85247365486f4883b53da3b97e9475b57585","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/48704be49ecd0e22752c3de2232c8979b2ff14534336d6f931ea242bc76cd840","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dd089889fcaf9d61848b9a81fb00d5ab370c8470161aeb44c045eea06dcbf4c9","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/166dfcbda294855d881888d7d0b7fd349488bcf804fa7bf20ecabce5e05a9c0c","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/92acc2a79e381778c9a6052114e06b5432aeb566abae8e726c1d005690374c84","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cb4626bfda2e44e0e24cd808ac7f9f1a49f55eb893562129e9ffa42ff4b3930a"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bc8eb00022a2a0d3ead72ed6c16ca854c47b6e69c146937b65104aeb378beb3e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/705a1dd6bba9fc0515e49c185345749a3b3eb909e31ea820a9bf859a8242a207","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8bf1107b71695e6a5b516e9948fcf12ae06b32d18c35a3c902b344cb0e04abce","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cd6b18794cbd1459f6d9ee53a6776c9c0a562680f9fa35d6d01d1d333c706141","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7fe62adc22d4910e0a79ea5ec64689d6edff1d17247a7091c2491f6596e41aa4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6639f5cf2bb17b12d1680a84ae947e688d0f4fa99763511abe2a6a14f3056742","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/da82c2877b30dbb79a743e832bccbddf2b977c1a5cd023a39499196b38091ba0","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ded8b8939dbaadb7e61ec37be2ba514c3f12bcc0ba3ac4db7707e00576aa9bb5"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425032S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Scholz, Tim and Laurin, Marianne},\n title={Impact Assessment of the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425032S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Scholz, Tim and Laurin, Marianne},\n title={\\\u0027{E}valuation de l\u2019incidence du plafond d\u2019\\\u0027{e}missions du secteur p\\\u0027{e}trolier et gazier},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}
